Chapter 536: Chapter 109: Suspects Everywhere
 

Franz’s prediction wasn’t wrong; once the Greeks had captured Prince Ludwig, the prospective king, they didn’t know what to do with him.

There was also a split within the Rebel Army, with one faction advocating the establishment of a Republic, attempting to break free from Austrian control over Greece.

The other faction argued for the enthronement of Ludwig to succeed the throne, with the reasoning that Prince Ludwig was the legitimate heir.

Before Austria had the chance to send troops to intervene, the Republicans and the monarchists were about to come to blows. Mostly capitalists, the Republicans also had a bunch of sophomore teenagers, while the monarchists were naturally the Nobility.

As for the numerous peasants and workers, they were mere spectators. This coup had nothing to do with them, and there was no need for them to take a stand.

Before the coup was initiated, they were able to cooperate because their goal was to expel Otto I’s Bavarian cabinet and seize the highest power in the government.

Now that the goal was achieved, the two factions were at loggerheads over power. Currently, the Nobility, in control of most of the army, had the upper hand. Perhaps Ludwig could ascend to the throne without the need for Austrian troops.

Looking at the information in his hands, Franz didn’t even know how to evaluate it. What happened to the revolution that was supposed to take place? How did it end before it even began?

With a bit of deduction, Franz knew someone was stirring the pot. Greece itself was just a tiny country, and current Greece wasn’t even half the size of Greece in later times.

With limited territory and scarce resources, and a maximum population of only around a million, how could the capitalists develop and grow?

Without sufficient strength, the advantageous geographical location was not a blessing. From the start of its independence, Greece had always been deeply influenced by the great powers.

The heavy debt burden placed the Greece Government in a state of chronic deficit, forcing it to intensify its plunder of the civilian population.

The domestic market in Greece had long since become a dumping ground for the goods of the great powers. The national capital had always been on the brink of life and death, and perhaps all of it put together didn’t even equal the fortune of a single large capitalist.

The economic strength of the Greek Nobility also wasn’t anything special, but at least they had the army in their hands. Now that the capitalists had also formed an army, although they were still at a disadvantage, this surpassed their actual strength.

Franz certainly didn’t believe that the capitalists would ruin their families for their country. Even if there were a few people of noble character, it was impossible for the entire group to be the same.

Politics is complex, and what you see isn’t necessarily the truth. Austria could create smoke bombs to fool people, and other countries were doing the same.

Without concrete intelligence about the sudden turmoil in Greece, Franz couldn’t make an accurate judgment.

Before one issue settled, another arose.

Before the problem in Greece was resolved, Bulgaria fell into chaos. On September 11th, 1873, the Bulgarian Revolutionary Alliance launched an anti-Russian uprising in Sofia.

…

Bulgaria was a tragic country. It had barely driven out the Ottoman Empire, only for the Russian Empire to take its place.

Thanks to the efforts of the Tsarist Government’s bureaucrats, the once Pro-Russian Faction had mostly turned anti-Russian.

Seeing the independence of Poland and the three Central Asian countries, it was impossible for Bulgarians not to be moved. However, the Russians placed great importance on Constantinople and stationed heavy forces there, quelling many people’s thoughts of independence.

Regardless, the Russians’ rule was somewhat better than that of the Ottoman Empire. They were not as harsh in their exploitation, and the two shared almost the same culture and religious beliefs.

If the Tsarist Government were willing to promote national integration, it could happen within a single generation. But the St. Petersburg Government didn’t have such intentions. Otherwise, the Russian Empire wouldn’t have so many nationalities.

Nothing lasts forever, nor does any flower stay in bloom for a hundred days.

In the end, the once-dominant Russian Empire finally declined. Since their defeat in the Prusso-Russian War, the idea of national independence had taken root in Bulgaria.

An agricultural crisis was another catalyst. Bulgaria’s industry was just beginning, and the economy was entirely supported by agriculture. Due to the international collapse in food prices, Bulgaria’s farmers in the region had suffered severe losses last year.

With autumn harvest approaching and grains being ignored, this only increased the panic among the people.

There were already rumors circulating that, to protect the export of local grains, the Tsarist Government had banned the collection of grains in Bulgaria.

Many were willing to believe in such obviously fabricated news. Ordinary people lacked such discernment, all they saw was that this year, no one was coming to collect grains.

It wasn’t just Bulgaria; almost all the grain capitalists on the European Continent were slowing down their pace. It was another bumper year, and nobody knew by how much the grain prices would fall, and what if they made a loss after early purchasing?

You must understand, last year’s severe price volatility already cost many people a lot of money. Before the grains were even purchased, the loss could be shifted onto the farmers, but if they had bought them, then they would have to shoulder the loss themselves.

To protect their own interests, the capitalists chose to wait and see how things would go. They would collect grains from the people after the market stabilized.

Anyway, there was still a lot of stock in storage that could not be consumed in the short term, so there was no worry that the grains would be snatched up by others.

The Russians hadn’t done nothing these years. With the removal of restrictions overhead, Bulgaria’s educational endeavors had flourished.

The new intelligentsia were among the first to be influenced by nationalism. They quickly forgot the merits of the Russians driving out the Ottomans, now only remembering the Russians’ subjugation.

Of course, the Tsarist Government would never admit to subjugating Bulgaria, especially since Alexander II’s reforms were impartial, benefiting many Bulgarian farmers. It’s just that before this wave of benefits could be felt, the agricultural crisis erupted.

In July 1869, the Bulgarian Revolutionary Alliance was secretly formed in Greece. To drive out the Russians, almost all Bulgarian revolutionary groups joined the Alliance.

Many people would be surprised to find that the real reason behind the emergence of the Alliance was: the land reform policies of the Russians.

The Revolutionary Party feared that if the Tsarist Government bought over the peasants, their revolutionary endeavors would be cut short. Hence, the reforms carried out by the Tsarist Government in Bulgaria faced the joint resistance of the Conservative and Revolutionary parties.

In this process, the two sides had converged, and the revolutionary forces began to grow stronger.

…

After going through the basic information about Bulgaria, Franz fell into a deep contemplation. The timing of this uprising seemed too much of a coincidence, just as he had decided to collaborate with the Russians to stir up trouble, both Greece and Bulgaria had almost simultaneously experienced revolutions.

To say that there was no connection behind this, that it was purely coincidental, Franz would never believe that. He would rather believe it was premeditated, someone wanting to target Russia and Austria, or perhaps to buy time.

The Greek revolution was an easy fix, even if it had to be resolved by force, it was merely a matter of deploying one or two divisions; for Austria, it was a minor issue.

The trouble was international pressure; without any proper reason, Austria couldn’t just interfere in Greece’s internal affairs, as it related to the international image.

Playing the whore while setting up the archway isn’t a joke; it’s a clear necessity. Every country is packaging itself; it’s just a matter of how many resources are invested.

In situations where interests are insufficient, everyone still prefers to maintain a good international image. Even England and France are no exception; they find excuses for overseas expansion and seldom rashly bull on without regard.

This little problem wouldn’t stump Franz, a change of agent would do the trick. For instance, the current Greek pro-royalist faction was a suitable partner.

As long as they supported Prince Ludwig’s succession and guaranteed Austria’s interests, letting them control Greece wouldn’t be too bad.

Bulgaria was a bigger problem. During the Near Eastern War, the Bulgarian guerrilla forces had demonstrated formidable fighting capabilities. Though this group had aged, the people were still alive. Even if they had slowed down in leading charges, providing experience and commanding operations weren’t significant issues.

Franz seriously doubted whether the Russians could extinguish this rebellion. It wasn’t that he worried they lacked strength, but rather, the Tsarist Government was short on funds.

“Has the mastermind behind the scenes been identified?”

Intelligence chief Tyren: “Preliminary judgment points to the Ottoman Empire. Whether it’s the Greek coup or the Bulgarian uprising, weapons were sponsored by Ottoman merchants.”

Franz wasn’t surprised that the Ottoman Empire wanted to strike back. They were almost under attack; how could they not retaliate?

Who knows what the truth is? The Ottoman Empire still had a portion of Greek people and Bulgarians; these “Ottoman merchants” were professedly patriotic merchants from Greece and Bulgaria.

Even if the news leaked, if the Sultan Government refused to admit it, or were adamant that these people weren’t Ottomans, Austria would have a hard time capitalizing on this situation.

Nationality is too easy to manipulate in this era; which international merchant doesn’t have several nationalities? Everyone uses whatever is necessary at the time, and without the internet, even if multiple nationalities aren’t acknowledged, it’s difficult to investigate.

If one is going to make a move, obviously they must tie up loose ends. Upon further investigation, these people might even have Austrian nationality.

For the mastermind behind the scenes, Franz considered everyone a suspect. From the outside, the Ottoman Empire seemed the most likely, the Russians the least, and England, France, and Austria about the same.

After hesitating for a bit, Franz said, “Never mind, just keep watching. If the mastermind behind the scenes intends to act further, they will eventually reveal themselves; and if they stop now, the current situation isn’t too bad.”

There was no way around it; both the Greek and the Bulgarians were muddle-headed, utterly unaware of who their backers were, blindly taking action.

How could this be investigated? Don’t think that these activities must be orchestrated by governments; bureaucrats, capitalists, and the nobility are just as likely to be the true culprits.

From a motive standpoint, there were too many suspects.

For instance, to gain time for preparation for war, the Sultan Government could have stirred up trouble to divert the attention of Russia and Austria;

Or maybe England and France wanted to assist the Ottoman Empire;

It could even have been orchestrated by Austria with the aim of weakening the Russians and gaining an advantage in the division of interests; this last possibility can be crossed out, as Franz could prove his own innocence.

In terms of interests, domestic munitions manufacturers, agricultural capitalists, and major nobility all had motives.

A batch of munitions wouldn’t be tough to handle for those without channels, but for those with connections, it was just an issue of tens of thousands of Divine Shields.

No matter how high international munitions prices might be, in reality, ordinary firearms and ammunition indeed don’t cost much. Secondhand rifles could be bought for only three or four Divine Shields each, and wholesale could be even cheaper.

With the current chaos, munitions manufacturers, agricultural capitalists, and large noble families producing grain were all beneficiaries. Not to mention anything else, this year’s grain prices were likely stabilized.

It wasn’t that the war had consumed much grain, nor that Bulgaria and Greece were significant grain exporting countries; mainly, it gave the market confidence.

International grain price crashes mainly happened because the market lost confidence; otherwise, capitalists would prop up the market, manipulating speculation to maintain stable grain prices.

What of overcapacity? As long as the trading market is controlled, one can still send out signals of supply being unable to meet demand to the outside world.

If there is a reasonable pretext for people to believe that there will be a shortage in this year’s market, then enough speculators can be swayed to artificially inflate the price of grain.

Forget the rest; just look at the news reported in the newspapers. Starting with the Vienna Government’s call for production cutbacks, the media has sung praises incessantly, as if the agricultural crisis is already in the past.

Nearly every European newspaper carried news about grain production reduction, with so-called experts and scholars excessively hyping the effects of the “Fallow Law,” some even boldly proclaiming that the grain production capacity in Europe would drop by twenty percent in 1873.

All these are tricks played by interest groups, how many people can they deceive is unknown. But surely not the wise ones; if all else fails, a trip to the countryside for inspection would reveal the truth.

Speculators who don’t know how to conduct market research will be doomed sooner or later, there’s no essential difference between dying a day earlier or later.

After the news of the Greek coup and the outbreak of revolution in Bulgaria spread, on September 13, 1873, grain prices on the London Future Market rose by 5 percentage points in a single day.